Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 1.926239e-01 0.230655 0.271411 0.318043 0.369633 0.424689 0.487610
2025-02-23 1.351805e-01 0.184768 0.242221 0.312483 0.394911 0.487444 0.598077
2025-03-02 9.038625e-02 0.143028 0.209256 0.295703 0.402723 0.528267 0.684092
2025-03-09 6.639796e-02 0.121247 0.195752 0.298646 0.431750 0.593344 0.799635
2025-03-16 4.564554e-02 0.098454 0.176521 0.290765 0.445022 0.638413 0.891676
2025-03-23 3.603782e-02 0.089710 0.174731 0.304788 0.485976 0.718344 1.028045
2025-03-30 2.573655e-02 0.076594 0.163998 0.304430 0.506696 0.772253 1.132535
2025-04-06 1.835400e-02 0.066177 0.155404 0.305577 0.528501 0.827295 1.238945
2025-04-13 1.369491e-02 0.059533 0.151725 0.313204 0.558983 0.893969 1.361158
2025-04-20 1.040324e-02 0.054617 0.150088 0.323393 0.592964 0.965646 1.490765
2025-04-27 7.683136e-03 0.049782 0.147656 0.331705 0.624014 1.033588 1.616222
2025-05-04 4.937709e-03 0.042885 0.139834 0.330052 0.639591 1.080015 1.713330
2025-05-11 3.315341e-03 0.038625 0.136867 0.336723 0.668540 1.146572 1.839927
2025-05-18 1.830567e-03 0.032893 0.129440 0.334712 0.683702 1.193791 1.941013
2025-05-25 6.374732e-04 0.025300 0.115541 0.319259 0.676507 1.208386 1.997308
2025-06-01 2.785920e-04 0.022324 0.112407 0.323580 0.700917 1.268893 2.117542
2025-06-08 4.569027e-05 0.017838 0.103700 0.315970 0.705111 1.299518 2.196317
2025-06-15 1.472467e-05 0.017212 0.106261 0.331185 0.747696 1.387540 2.356493
2025-06-22 9.537281e-10 0.014577 0.101651 0.331047 0.764125 1.436638 2.462235
2025-06-29 NaN 0.012459 0.097969 0.332398 0.782901 1.489342 2.573488
2025-07-06 NaN 0.011327 0.097471 0.340535 0.813525 1.560301 2.711364
2025-07-13 NaN 0.010573 0.098195 0.351343 0.848963 1.638922 2.860783
2025-07-20 NaN 0.009687 0.098071 0.360145 0.880975 1.712632 3.003767